On April 12, Miguel Cotto is favored to beat Alfonso Gomez and retain his WBA welterweight title. I'm predicting an upset.
Alfonso Gomez is going to beat Miguel Cotto. There, I said it. I know my boxing writer brethren are going to think I'm nuts, but I just can't shake the idea that Gomez is going to pull off an upset. There is some substance to my prediction too.
Gomez is a natural welterweight, where Cotto moved up to 147; he is well grounded, technically; and he is mentally tough and won't allow Cotto to own the ring. It's the mental toughness that will make the most difference.
When Cotto fought Shane Mosley, it was Cotto who ended up giving ground as the fighters marched into the last rounds. Gomez noticed. I'm sure the entire welterweight division noticed. From that point forward, Cotto's future in the division got a lot tougher, as potential opponents caught a glimpse of weakness.
That's a little unfair, I know. After all, it was Shane Mosley standing across from Cotto, and Shane flat brings it. But the image of Cotto as an immovable force, which no man is capable of maintaining, has been broken.
To Gomez, Cotto is just another man.
Yes, other writers will think I'm nuts, until Cotto and Gomez face each other in the ring for pre-fight instructions, then they will size the fighters up and begin to doubt.
Gomez by TKO in the championship rounds.
